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Ukufunda amaphathisetho esiqide kwe-cobalt kunye ne-lithium iyabheka ukuthi ubomi olungakho lwenqanawe yamathebhu e-lithium-ion ayikho. Amabomvu angama-2 amaqanda, ngokushesha amagama akhe abangamanje abafinyelela isisekelo semathebhu. Ngemva kokusukela, imibhalo ye-cobalt bezibhekisele izimbali ezidingekileyo, zinamandla ngezikhathi nokuphucula kwesinqumo sokuthengiswa kunye nokulula okusebenza. Lithium yeshiya ukuhlaba lokuncane; ngokushesha, imibhalo yakhe abezidabi 86% phakathi kweJanuwari 2023 kunye neAgusthu 2024, ebekwenzela ukuba kudibanise imibhalo ye-lithium-ion cell.
Amagcinaki amageopolitiki amaphumeleya ngokubanjwa kuhle umthetho wokuqala, phakathi kwamalayiswano wezicatshulwa ezikhethekileyo nokuthi zingabonisa izilimo esikhathini sokugcina nokuphela. Amadinamiki ayesibhedlela ezikhoyo lwezinye zezi minerali, njengomKangaruku neDhipomokrasi ya Kongo, apho iindlela ezifanele zizihlabeleka ngokushesha ngezinhlobo ezintathu zezimali nokuphela. Ngokuhlola, amakhishoni wezimarketi azithumela ukuthi ukuhlaba kufuneka kube ngendlela elandelayo kodwa azidinga ukuthi imithombo yemigcinaki emaqondisiweni yokuthi imigama yesiphumo lokusebenza kanye nokusetyenziswa kokudla kuzohlala ukukhangelwa, njengoba kwiindawo ezininzi zezindaba zezindawo, uzokusiza ukuba kuhloniphe umphumulo wesiphumo sasebenzelo.
Ukubophelela isiphumo sasendzima selinye le-nikeli kuyibonisa izilungiselelo ezikhoyo ezihlukene nezokuphucwayo kwezindawo zokulula. Inikeli iyindlela yokuqinisekisa ngokuthile ngokwesikhashana esidingeni lesibhedlela elithili-eshoni-layithium, okuhlu kunye neziBEV, apho ukufakelwa kwamathetho amabheke yiyo lokunquma umnotho wemfuyo wesikhatsi. Okwesiphiwo, izilungiselelo zokudibanisa ngeendzima zakusebenza kokwenqanawa kwe-nikel, nokushintsha ukusetyenziswa, kukhangelela amandla kwindawo yokusetyenziswa, akhangeleyo indlela yokuhlala yomkhonto.
Ngokwesintu zezinsuzi, kunezilungiselelo ezinhle ngaphandle kwemibhalo, ukuba amabhethe ahlula kwezinye izindlela ezikhoyo, njengamavini okulandelayo nokusebenza kakhulu kwiNkqubo ye-EV. Amagumbi akhawuleza ukubala phakathi komunye wokuqhubeka kwenikelile nezimdlobheni ze-EV, ngenxa yalokho amaproyekthi akhawulalela ukuthi kunye nomunye womunye wokuqhubeka kwenikelile yomphilo webhethe ezenziwayo emva kokusha kwe-2025, ngokwesisho esisodwa kumagaba lokhu lama-EV Magazine. Leliyathimba lokuhlola lokhu kufanele leli niqinisekise kuhlukelelwa kwebhethe ngaphandle kokuthi ukuhluphekiswa kwezindlela ezifanayo nokuphatha.
I-Graphite iyithintsi elikhulu kwi-lithium-ion batteries njenge-anode material, uvumelela amakhotsi okulandelwa kunye nephasa. Ukubuka kwe-amakhotsi eculwayo kwe-graphite kuhluke izimbali ezidingekileyo phakathi kwe-graphite enkulu kunye ne-synthetic graphite, oku kulingana nokuphiko lokho olungapheli. I-natural graphite, ifanele kunye nokuthi i-pricing yakhe ikhangatshisi ngokwesikathelo sokugcina esisodwa, icacise nge-synthetic graphite, okudingekayo iphuphe kunye nokulandelwa okukhulu kwamakhotsi.
Amaliphi ase-market research azifumanisa amaphasa amahlukeleka we-graphite kodwa bazihlonipha ukuthi bazingavalelwa yinkqubo yesiphumo sasendaweni lokususa kunye nokuzibuyela okulandelayo kwe-battery sector. Ngokuhlala kokuba imiphumela yokulandelwa ziziphumelela kunye nokuba amanqaku alahlulekile, lezi zinto zizobuya zikhuluma nge-phasing we-graphite kunye nokuba kuhlanganiswa, futhi kuzoba kuhlukwe amakhotsi e-lithium-ion. Ukufinyelela lento kuhluke izinhlobo ezinethetha ezindaweni zokulandelwa kwe-battery, uzokusure kamva ukuthi kuhloyo kunye nokuphatha kwenqanawe emphakathini wesekhaya lesingazama.
Izovumelwano ezintsha zithi ngakumbi zikuphathisiwe i-ingeniso yomoya leli-lithiyoni yebhethi, uzokwenza lokulandela ukuphumelela kanye nokugcina izinto zokuthengisa. Amaphandle amahhuhhu angakhuliswa ngezinye izindlela, njenge-high-nickel chemistries njengo nickel-cobalt-manganese kunye ne nickel-cobalt-aluminum, ezifunekayo iingeniso yokumoya ekuphakamisweni kunye nenkululeko yebhethi. Ngokusho kwangoku, amavuthi akwazi ukugcina umoya ngalokhu olungaphakathi lwezindaweni ezininzi, uzokwenza lokukhula okuncane. Lokhu kufuneka ukuba kudibane imali ngokuhlola ukusebenza kweyiphi yilimi, uzokwenza lokungabonakale yi-li-ion battery prices ngokuhlukeleka. Ukusondezela kwi-EV Magazine kukhuluma ngezovumelwano ezizenzakalelayo ezidinga ukubuyiselwa kwengeniso yomoya ngokusho kuzo kwiimeyi elishumi ehlulekileyo ezozihlanganiswa lokuhlola ukuhlola kweingeniso yomoya kunye nemali.
Ukubona ukuphatha kwezinto zokusebenza ze-solid-state battery technology kuyabonisa amaphethu angaphambili yakhe ngokwesikhatsi esiqondisiwe sengxenye yama-lithium-ion batteries, njenge-energy densities ehigibhedlela kunye nesibhakabhaka esihle. Ngokulandelani, umgca wokuqala we-commercial viability ungenziwe ngezichazi zokuthenga. Ukugcina i-solid-state batteries uyahamba ngezimateriale ezikhulu kunye ne-processes ezindaba zokusetyenziswa ezifaneleleyo ezixinxintsha izinkampani zokusebenza. Amagcinelo akhetha lezi zicala, kodwa abasebenzisayo abafika abaluleka ukusetshenziswa kokuthenga kakhulu phambi kwemvume omtsha. Izimbango zingazisa iziphethiso ezixinxintsha ezinakho ukusukunyusa lezi zicala, uzokusukela ukuthi i-solid-state batteries zizoba zikwazi ukuba zilungiselele ngokuphathelene kakhulu kwi-battery market.
Izimvo eziphuthileyo kwiiphrogesi zokubuyisela amabhethe ezilithiyoni libe lizobuya nokulayishwa amanye amaxesha, futhi bazokunceda ukusuka kokuphuhlwa kwamalenti. Izinhlelo zakubuyiselwa ezindaba zibekwe ukusetshenziswa kwebulawo loluhlu lwamathetha olungaphandle lokufakelwa ngokwesikhatsi, njengelithiyoni, ikhobalto nezinkheli, okuningi kakhulu ngephrojekthi yamabhethe. Lezi zimvo zibe zingabonga ukukhubazela imali yokugcina kakhulu komhlaba wemibhethe emisha kunye nokuthuthukisa izimbongi zokumfanelo olunqanawa ngokuvamileyo ngokubuyiselwa kwezilungu zezimali ezinetheni. Amastatisitiki akhaliphi kwezinhlobo ezifanele zokubuyiselwa zibophelela ukulayishwa kwamathetha ngokuphiindlela elinye leluzekwayo ngemuva kokudala kwezinyanga ezine. Lendawo lingacabanga ukuphatha imali yezilungu zezimali, uzokusetyenziswa imali yesikhwama sokubuyiselwa.
Umkhakha wemfene yobuxoki elikhulu (EV) utholakele kubantu ababili, uzokhuphela ukusuka kakhulu lokusebenza kwisebe lelibhomi-layithoni. Ngokwesicatshulwa sesikishwe seSikolo Sehlukene Sabanye (IEA), i-EVs zizohlala ukuba zingaqondile ngaphambi kokudala eminyaka engu-25, esikhundleni sonyaka oluhlu lwezincinci lomncedisi lwesibhedlela nge-2024. Ukusuka kakhulu kwamfene yobuxoki kukho kuhluke kumkhakheni wesilithi ngoba kuzofunyaniswa ngendlela yokuhlola nokuhlola okungahlukeneyo. Ngenxa yokugcina ukusebenza kwisebe lesilithi-layithoni, imali eyahlukene yasebenzelo yayingapheleleyo, ukuze kuhamba kwiqinisekiso elikhulu lokusebenza. Inxuva yesilithi layithoni yobuxoki lizozalwa ngokusasa ngesithathu nesihlanu ngo-2025, uzokwenzela ukuthi isekhempi lokusebenza libe liphambili lokuhlola futhi ukufinyelela komphilo kwezisebe sezisebe.
Ngokusho kwezindlela ezikhoyo zokusebenza ngemfihlakalo wehluku ephakamisiwe ngesibonelo sokufundiswa, uhlu lwenqanawe yezigodlo zakwenzeka ngendlela enkulu. Abantu abasebenzela kunye nezinhlangano zomoya ezindilingayo zithola kuyo lokho lokusebenzisa ukufundiswa kokuthi khona umoya omkhulu, lokhu kuhlanganisa ukusuka kwesicwangciso sombuzo wesifundo sokulima nokufundiswa. Ukukhetha okuthile kumthetho wakhiwo wemfihlakalo wakhiwa ngokubanzi kunye nokufundiswa komoya, kunye nokuphatha kweziqhawu ze-lithium kunye neziphrojekthi zokugcina imfihlakalo yesiqhawu. Izinsizathu eziteknikali zazo zingazange zisetyenziswa ngokungcono yokuhlola nokusetshenziswa kwezinye izinto ezinomsindo, futhi iimali ezinzane zabelana nokuhlukaniselo lwengqukuzelelo elikhoyo. Ngokuhlukaniswa kweziqhawu zokuphatha komoya esiphakeme, kukholelwa ukuthi kuhlanganiswa okuthile ukusebenzisa kwezinhlangano zokuphatha komoya, kunye nokuthi kuholelwa amandla apho emva kokucabanga lokuncane kunye nokuphumelela kwezindlela ezintsha.
Ukugcina okubanzi kwezinye zamathebhu azokuvumela ngokushesha, ubungakho oluhle lomphathiso wokubaluleka lokusebenza nokusetyenziswa kwamandla esisodwa. Lwendawo lwesikhashana lwavela amaphutha amanye, ngoba kulandelayo iindlela ezikhulu zokuhlola izilondolozi eliphambiliweyo ezilithi-ayoni ethi kudinga ukukhupha imali ngezinye zamathebhu ngokusebenzisa amandla ekupheleni. Ngenxa yokuba kuhluke amandla esisodwa kuhluke umlando wokuqala wesintshonalendawo, kuhlukaniswa ukuthi kuhluke umthetho wokusetshenziswa kunye nokuthuthukiswa kwezindawo eziphumayo kweemathebhu. Ngokwesishayamthetho, kuhluke ukuthi kuhluke ukuhlola okubanzi kweemathebhu kukudinga ukuthi kuhluke umthetho wokulandelayo wezinga lokusebenza nokuhlola. Ngakho, iiprojekthi ezibanzi kuhluke ukuthi kuhluke ukukhupha imali yamathebhu, ukuthuthukiswa kokufakelwa komphilo, kunye nokuthuthukiswa kokuthi kuhluke umlando wokusetshenziswa kunye nokuthi kuhluke umlando wokuthi kuhluke umlando wokusetshenziswa kunye nokuthi kuhluke umlando wokusetshenziswa.
Ukuphatha kwezilimo ngokwesiqephu kwi-lithium lichaphazela amakhono omncane, alandelayo ukubonisa umthetho wamakhono wemibhatho eli-lithium. Izicwangciso ezidingekileyo zikhulula ukuhlola lokuhlola okuthile, uphawu lwamanzi olunqwenqwene, kunye nokususa izindlu zethombo. Amahlobo amaningi lalokhu, ngakho ke apho kukhona ngokuthile, ziyahlala ukukhokha kakhulu imali yokusebenza. Ngokwesikhashana sokugcina ngezinye izifundziswano zezilimo, imali yokuqhopha kuyayiphiwa emakhadloweni wezilimo. Ngiyeyiphi iindlela yesiphumo sasemanzi esingaphambili kunye nokuthi kufanele ukusetshenziswa lokhu lokungcono ukuphawuka kumthetho. Lolu hlobo lomthetho lalokhu lalivumelela ukuba imali yamathebha ye-lithium yayiphiwe ngendlela yakho. Imali yesiphumo yasekelwe njengokusho ukuthi leli hlobo lalokhu lalivumelela ukuba imali yesilondolozi somathebha ye-lithium yayingapheleleyo.
Amaphumelelo amandla kwi-Europe ngokugijima ngezindlela zokubuyisela amabheti zikhululeka izindaba ezinethemba lokuhlola umthetho wokubuyiselwa kwezicathalo esiqhina. Izimvo eziqshashelwe zisebenzisa ukuthi inkcazo enkulu yamathetho aobheti akusetyenziswa nokuba ayibuyiselwe, ukwenzela indlela yokuphucula okusemva komhlaba. Iziphumo zokuhlola zihlukile: ngokushesha, ukuhlawulwa kwezindlela zokubuyisela kukho kuhlu, kodwa ubungakho beselela ukufunda kwezindlela zokubuyisela, ukungavunyelwe imali ngokugcina lapho. Ngokushesha lezi zintsimiso zizohlala, bazokuthatha isiphumo sokubuyisela amabheti abalimi abayili ngokubheka ukumbekedwa kwesinye sokuqinisekisa imithombo yezilimi ezinhlanganiswa. Izimbango zase-Europe zikhuluma ngezimpumo ezininzi, zikhuluma kokuthi izimvo eziqshashelwe zakhiwo lokubuyisela kuzofundziswa ukubuyiselwa imali yakhe webheti ngokubonisa ukuthi amathetho aobheti azokuphucula ngokuthi amathetho akhokube lapho. Ukusuka lokhu kubuyekeza ukuthi lokungahlukele kakhulu lokuhlola phakathi komhlaba lokuhlola kubheka ukuthi lokuhlola kubheka lokuhlola kubheka lokuhlola kubheka lokuhlola.
Izicatshulwa zokuthenga zikhetha ngakwesentle ukusukela okuhlukaniswa ngekuhlukaniswa kwezilondolozi zombili elingezantsi, lokunyekezwa xa kunjalo ngenqanawe nekuxheliswa kwamathuba. Izicatshulwa ezincinci ezilandelayo nokugqugquza kungabikho amagumbi angaphambili, aziphatha imali yokusebenza kunye nokusasazeka kwezinto ezingalula njengelithium kunye nokokobalt. Ukuphucumana kokuthengela, njengokubonisa ama-tariff okanye ukufinyelela kokuthengiswa, uzama ngokushesha ukuziphindaphinda izinkomo zomthombo ngokususa ukuhlanganiswa kwemibhalo wesintsha. Izigaba zokusebenzisa nokuthenga zifumanekayo ukuba amacatonisi akhethwe ngokukhona, uzame ukwenza ukufika kwesiphi esisodwa sokuthengiswa kwezilondolozi, ukususa imali kunye nokusasa ukusuka kwezilondolozi. Ngakwesentle, iindlela ezidingekayo yokuthengela ziyayipheleleya imali kunye nokusasaza ukusuka kwezilondolozi elingezantsi.
Amasistimu esihlangene ngezilimo ezifanayo zikhuphela isithuthi sokugcina iziphalizi zemibhethe leliyoni ngokubonisa ukungakwazi ukuphathelwa kwezinye izilimo ezindala. Izisistimu zakhiyo amaphi amabhethe oluyise, azikuphumelela amacompoti entsha, kunye nokufaka kwindawo yokusebenza. Ukubanzi bethu kuhlanganisa ukusuka kwesintu sokulayishwa kunye nokuhlola okukhulu kanye nezinhlobo zokugcinwa emfazweni. Ngokushesha, ngokusiphumelela amacompoti njengelithium, ikobhati, kunye nenikelai, amaphi amabhethe alahleke iimpahla yefinankosi yokuphatha kokubhedelela kwezinye izilimo ezindala. Isibonelo esiqinileyo ngeCircular Energy Storage Research and Consulting ifunda uhlalekiswa lwezisistimu ezihlangene ngezilimo ezindleleni lokusebenza, ifanelela ukuthi bayekho indlela yokuhlola ukuthi babhekisele uphawu wokugcina kumiba yamabhethe.
Ukukhetha phakathi kwezinhlobo zokusebenza ngokushona nezinhlobo zakusebenza ngokuphi lezi zikhombisa izinkqubo zokubuyisela kakhulu, futhi lokho kungaphandle komsebenzi wamalithi-ayoni. Ukubuyisela ngokushona usebenzisa i-aqueous chemistry ukufinyelela amalayini kwezibhebhu ezinethile, okuningi lavela ngokushesha oluhlola kunye nokuhlanganiswa okubanzi kwezinto ezifunywa ngokuphi imigomo yokusebenza ngokushona. Ngokugcina, ukubuyisela ngokuphi lezi zikhombisa umoya omncane okanye umsebenzi wokulanda kwesikati esikhulu, lokhu kusukelela ukukhulula kokusebenza kwaye kuzoqhathanisa izinkqubo. Izimbango zomculo, njengazo zezilondolozi leFaraday, zizama ukucacisa ukuthi udlula ngekhishoni nekupheleneyo kwezinhlobo zakusebenza ngokushona kungaba yonke lezi zikhombisa izinkqubo zokubuyisela, lokhu kungazixhasa ukuthi kuzoqhathaniseka izinkqubo eziphathelene ngezinkqubo zokubuyisela.
Ukubuya kwezinye izindlela ezikushesha ngokusebenzisa amabhejithi omalayini oluthile ehlukene ngemvume lokungahlela ukuphela kwabo nokuhlola imali. Ngemuva kokusebenza isenzo yesikhatsi esilandelwayo, ababhejithi bazoziqephesha ukuze usebenze ngokulandelayo kumazwi ophambili, njengamavoti wemakhompiyutha emfutheleleni noma ekusendzeleni. Lokhu lungenziwa izindlela ezintsha zokuhlanganiswa kodwa kunikeza inani lezidinga zezibhejithi ezindala. Izimbango, njengezinhlobo zamaInternational Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), ziphindaphinda ukuthi kuzobuya kwezinye izindlela ezikushesha ngokusebenzisa amabhejithi, engakhothekwanga ukugcina ukusebenzisa iimveliso zeenergy ezindala. Ngokusebenzisana nababhejithi ngale ndlela, amakhiwani angaze akhetha amanye amagama okudingekayo, okungangiphalise imali kunokuhlola umthetho wobhejithi.