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Igridi zokunyakaza kuzo kungenhla kuya kusebenzisa izinhlelo zokuxhumana kwezinhloso nezokugcinwa lapho izinhloso zombila nezinhloso zokugcinwa ezifanayo ziyasebenza. Isenzo semoya yilokho ukugcina amandla aphezulu owonakala kusihlangothini ukuze ayisetyenziswa xa kunezixeko eziphakathi kwevu nekuphela kwezikhathi ezingcono noma xa igridi ithambe. Ngenhloso yokuba kunezimali ezingaphezu kuka-20% ezingaphakathi kwemigqa ethile, izikimba zokunyakaza ayibonakali ngendlela yokuthi kuzo kungenhla kuyadingeka ukuba kube yimali. Okwesibini, kuzo kungenhla kuyadingeka ukuba kube yimali esingqokweni semoya yezinhlelo zokunyakaza, okudinga ukuplaniswa ngokucacile kusukela ekwenzekeni ngekuhamba kwesikhathi.
Ukudibanisa izindawo zokugcina datha kuzindawo zokuhlanjwa kwezulu kwenza ukuthi kube yimali ngempumelelo. Sebenzisa isikhati se 250 megawatt esikhundleni se Arizona njengombagiso. Ngenkathi yemva kwelethu lapho bonke bavula amalayizi nezinhlobo zokusebenza, isistimu yebheti yekhaya yenza ukuthi kube ne-100 megawatts ngemva kwezintathu ezingama 4 kusukela kumgcinwa wama 400 megawatt. Lokhu kakhulu kubekwe ukuthi izindawo zokuhlanjwa zaselethu zingavalelwe kakhulu ngokwezinye izikhathi. Lezi zinhlobo zokwenza zikuthwalisa ukuthi kudingekile ukuthi kube nezindlela zokuhlanjwa ezide kanye nokuthi kuvunyelwe ukuthi ikhweyithi iyisise ngemva kwezindleko eziphezulu. Ngokwesicatshulwa esisha sika NREL, izikhwama zokuhlanjwa zibona ukuthi kube yimali ngama 40% kwezinye izidingo zokulungisa izinsuku ezingadinga ukulungiswa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinto lapho zombini izinto zisetyenziswa ngokudibanisa.
Uma sibheka isithombe esikhulu, kusobala ukuthi kuye kwaba nokwanda kokugcinwa kwamandla okufakwa ezikhungweni ezinkulu zelanga kulo lonke elaseMelika. Ngokwe-Market.us yangonyaka odlule, cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zazo zonke izinhlelo zelanga ezihleliwe zango-2023 kuya ku-2024 ziyohlanganisa uhlobo oluthile lwesistimu yebhethri. Kusho ukuthini ngempela lokhu? Izwe lethu selivele linama-battery angama-gigawatt angu-20.7 asebenza njengamanje. Lokho empeleni kuyamangalisa ngoba lokho kungaqhubeka kukhanyisa emakhaya angaba yizigidi ezingu-15 uma kunokucinywa kukagesi okuhlala amahora amane. Izifundazwe eziningana eziye zabeka imigomo yokukhiqiza amandla ahlanzekile seziqala ukufuna ukuba amapulazi amasha elanga abe nezixazululo zokugcina izinto. Lokhu kucindezela komthetho kudala amathuba amabhizinisi afuna ukuvuselela. Ochwepheshe balinganisela ukuthi lesi sidingo sodwa singase silethe imali engaba izigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyishumi nambili zamaRandi unyaka ngamunye ngokuthuthukisa nje kuphela izinhlelo ezikhona ezinamabhethri alondoloziwe afanele phakathi neminyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Izindawo zokugcinwa kwezinhloko zibalwa ngokwenge kwezibatteri e-lithium ion leso kungenhla kuba kunesikhathi esikhulu sokugcina kakhulu, ngokuphakathi kwe-4 kuya kuma-8 amahora. Kodwa kunezinye izibatteri eziyandayo ezifika tata, njengokwehlule nezincolo ezingenani, eziyadala ngokuhambisana nezimo ezidinga ukugcinwa kwezinhloko ngemva kwezikhathi ezingaphezu kwe-12 kuya kuma-100 amahora. Abasebenzisa amakhono kanye nezinto eziphakeme kwezinhloko zokugcina, kuthiwa kubuyela kakhulu ukugcinwa kwezinhloko kuma-300 Wh kuya kuma-kg, lokhu kuvumela amakhampani ukuthi abeke izibatteri ezingaphansi noma kungenhla kakhulu.
Izibheti zomda zokugcinwa kwezibonelo zenza ukuguqula ngokubalulekile ngokungena kwezindlela zokugcinwa kwezindlela zokugcinwa ngokuthi zinamandla okungenani ngu-500 Wh/kg. Le ngxenye yendlela yenza kube yisikhashana esifanelekileyo kuzindlela zokugcinwa kwamagrigi aphakeme kakhulu lapho isikhawombi sikhethekile. Ngakolunye uhlango, ubuchwepheshe bokugcinwa kweyodini besodiyamu bube yisimo esibonakalayo kakhulu ngalesi sikhathi, buphakela amandla amanye nemigomo yezibheti zokuqala zelithiyamu kodwa ayikhankanywa ngokuphindwe kabili ngokulingana no-40%. Izindlela zokwenza le zibheti zosodiyamu zase zonke zinhle kakhulu ukuthola khona kuzindlela zokwenza izindlela zokugcinwa ezincane, nezinto ezijwayelekileyo ezijulwe ngokwehlukahlukene njengaleyo yama-analogi amaningi asebenziswe kuzindlela zokudlala. Le ndlela yonke iyafanisa ngokuphelele kwezidinga eziningi zezwe zokugcinwa kwamagrigi aphakeme kakhulu ngokungu-10 years. Izinhlobo zonke zingathatha isikhashana esingu-95% yokungena kwezindlela zokukhanya zokugcinwa ngi-2035, futhi le zibheti ezisha zenza ukuthi kubhekwe izinkinga ezimbili ngokungu-10 years - izinkinga zokuphepha kwezindlela zokugcinwa ezijwayelekile kanye nezinga eliphezulu kakhulu lamanzi ayanayo ukwenza amagrigi aphakeme kakhulu.
Izinhawu zokugcinwa kwezolo zibandakanywa ngokushesha kule ndida kodwa zinezinkinga ezinkulu xa kuxhuma kwi-grid. Ngenxa ye-40% yezinhlangano ezingathuthelwa kwiindlela ezixhunyanwe nokuxhumana kwezi nqo ngo-2023. I-grid yethu yandaliwe ngokulula ngokulula, ngoko iyahlulela ukunikezela amandla emva kwezinye izinhawu zokugcinwa zokushukela ezinezindlela zokugcinwa. Oku kuthiwa ngokuba kufuneka abasebenzisi inkqubo yokuvuselela amandla okuxhuma ngokulula. Okunye kwezinga eliphezulu kubakho kweenguqulelo engenakuhlukana. Iindleko ezidala zingenakwenza ukulawulwa kwezibuko ngokulula ngexesha le cycle yokulayisha kunye nokukhupha amandla.
Ukuphila kahle kweqondo lempilo kuyinduna enkululeko yeziphumo zokugcinwa kwamandla kakhulu. Uma amandla ayiphilanga ngendlela echanekileyo, kungeke kube yimali le-30% yokugcinwa kwamandla ngaphambi kokuthi kudingeka ukubuyiselwe, ngokwesicelo sikaDNV ngo-2022. Amadoda amaningi wokuqala kwezimali ezidlulwa ngoku kudinga ukusebenza kwezinhlobo zokulinda kancane kunoma futhi izinkomba zokulinda izindleke zokuthi kuthinte noma yiliphi indawo ephezulu ngokushesha kunesibili esikhombisa kancane. Ngesigaba sokuthengisa, ukuphila kweqondo lempilo kuthola kancane kanye no-18% wemali engcono yokufaka uhlelo lwe-BESS. Kufakwe noma ngabe yiliphi uhlelo olunye lwe-100 MW, lokhu kancane kuthenga ngokungenhla kanye no-1.2 million USD. Lokhu kungcono kakhulu, kodwa kudingeka ukuthi kuthathwe ngqo ngokuthi uhlelo luyinhloko kakhulu ngokuphila kwamandla.
Njengoba izinhlobo zokugcinwa kwamandla e-lithium-ion zingaba yikhulu kakhulu (92%) wokuthenga okusha kwamandla ngezinhlobo zasemvini (Wood Mackenzie 2024), abasebenzisi baphakama ukuthi kudingeka ukwahlala phakathi kwezindleko koma ukuphezulu kwamandla:
Ukuthiwa lwaseLazard lwe-2024 lubonisa ukuthi ukukhulu kwezibhanki zebhetha nge-20% kunciphisa ukubuyiselwa kwezimpetho ngokuthirwa kweminyaka engu-30% ngaphandle kwalokho okuphakade kwezindleko zokuqala.
Ukutshintshwa kwezimnotho zasegoverimenti kwenza uhlu oluncayo kakhulu kuye kuthi yini na imigwaqo yesolar ye-battery iyabelana ngendzeka. Kuzo izikwele ezingu-15 e-US akhona babegina ukuthi kuzozidlaywa izinkomba zokugcinwa kwezindlela zonke ezintsha zase-solar ezinkulu kune-50 megawatts. Nangokudons, kukhona lokuthiwa ngu-FERC Order 841 oshintshashintsha kanjani izindlela abapayi ngazo izikampani zokudla emachazweni ephelele. Ngokwesiya, uma kungenziwa ngokulula konke lokhu kwezimvume nezinkomba zokuhlwola, singakubona okungenani izigigawatts ezingu-15 zokweqile kanye nezinkomba zokugcinwa zizosungwa phambili ngo-2026. Lokhu kuzoba ngokuba bonke bavuma izimithi eziphambene nezimithi zokuphepha kanye nezindlela ezidla ngazo indawo nganye yenqanawo.
Thatha i-Moss Landing kwiCaliforniya njengombagelo wokuba solar panels ne-batteries zisebenza ngokwesibini ukuxazulula iingxaki zemali ngemva kwezikhathi eziphambene. Le ndawo inayo ngoko ke-1.6 gigawatt-hours yokuGcinwa kwi-solar panels, oko kuthetha ukuba kunikeza iindleko kwiingxenye ezi-300,000 ngemva kwezikhathi eziine ezingama-4 xa abantu baneedlula ngazo ngomso. Okuqukethweyo kuyindlela yokuba le ndawo yila amaphela ngokuphelele kwiindleko ezingama-28 million ngayinye indoda ngokuba yenza ukuba ifrequency ingcinwe. Khawuleza kakhulu ukuba yisemathileni kwi-98% xa iingxaki zokuthiwa kwakhiphayo iintambo ngokwezulu ngo-summer.
Isicathamiya esikhulu kakhulu sangokwe esiseFloridini, esine ukunge lwe-900 MWh, isula kakhulu isebenza sangokwe yemindleke yokuphela kwemigqa ngokupel' okungenani 40% ngemvukuzane yokungena kwamagaleshi. Oku kusebenza ngokuhlanganiswa kwayo nezindawo zokwe zasekhaya ezingama-75 MW esemgceni. Ngokugcina amandla wokwe okungenhla ekuseni, izibhobho zingakhanya amandla aphelwe kumase 7 kuya kuma-9 ngemva kwehora leso. Le ndlela yonke isetha izindleko zokungena ngama-$3.2 ngwenketha. Inkambo iphakeme xa kungena amagaleshi futhi ikhulu lifuna inkxenye efanayo kodwa izindawo zokwe azinike amandla okanye zingaba yimali ngokuphelelwa kakhulu.
Ukufakwa kwe-Tesla Megapack yamandla kagesi angu-300 MW/450 MWh kwakamuva kugcizelela indlela amabhethri elanga angangena ngayo lapho amanethiwekhi edinga ukwesekwa okwengeziwe. Emuva ngo-2023, ngemva kokuba isitshalo esikhulu samalahle sivale ngokungazelelwe, la mabhethri aqala ukusebenza ngemilisekhondi angu-140 nje kuphela - okuyizikhathi ezingaba ngu-60 kunalokho okwenziwa izitshalo zamandla okushisa zakudala. Ngenxa yalokhu kusabela okusheshayo, imikhaya engaba ngu-650 000 yaqhubeka inamandla kagesi phakathi nalokho okwakungaba ukucishwa kukagesi okukhulu. Okwenza lokhu kuphawuleke nakakhulu ukuthi uhlelo lwagcina izinga lokusebenza kahle elihlaba umxhwele lama-92% nakuba lwalusetshenziswa njalo kancane usuku lonke. Lokhu kusebenza kwezwe langempela kunikeza ubufakazi obuqinile bokuthi ukuhlanganisa imithombo yamandla ehlukene kusebenza kahle ndawonye, okwenza kube lula ukuhlanganisa amandla avuselelekayo kwingqalasizinda yethu yamandla ekhona ngaphandle kokubeka engcupheni ukuthembeka.
Izinhlayiya zokugcinwa kwezulu leli kona kuhlelwa ngempumelelo ngokuthi kusetshenziswa kwezinhlobo zokuzwa okunikeza inkumbulo yokuphatha ukuthi kuzokwenzeka kanjani ukulayisha nokulayishwa kwezulu futhi ukuxhumiya nenethiwekhi. I-Software esemhliziyo ikhombisa izinto ezithile njengezulu, ukuthi ziphi izindleko zezulu ezingaphansi kwehora, futhi izimiso zokusebenzisa izulu kamanje. Ngokwesicatshulwa sika Startus Insights kusihlandla 2025, le ndlela esemhliziyo ingase kakhulu ukuthola imirhodlo yokuthola imali kubantu abasebenzisa le ndlela kabanzi kanye ne-12% kuya kuma-18% ngaphandle kwezinye izinhlayiya eziphakeme. Kwezindlela zokukhula kakhulu lapho kunezinhlayiya eziningi, izinhliziyo zokuthuthukiswa kwezulu zihlela ukuthuthukiswa kwezulu phakathi kwezinhlayiya ezahlukene nezinverteri ngokuzenzekela. Lokhu kunceda ukulungiselela izinhlayiya ukuze kungahle kuhlale kakhulu futhi kugcine ukuphaphama kwevholthi ngecala ezingaphansi kwe-2%, lokhu kungukhona okubaluleke lapho kuzama ukuthuthukisa i-grid ayithembeke kakhulu.
Izinhlayiya zokuvikela nezibhanti zaseZulu zibe yisicaba sezinga le 34% lezindlela zokufaka izindlela zokuvikela, kuvumela ukulethwa kwezulu kanye nezulu ngokuphelele ngokusebenza kwezinye izitekhi yokulayisha ngokweziganeko ezingaphakathi
Izifundo ezisha kabusha kubonisa ukuthi izinhlayiya eziphethe izindlela zokuvikela zenza ukusebenza kwezimali ezingama 92% kunoma 78% ezinhlayiyweni zaseZulu kuphela, nasekuhlangene kwezokugcinwa okuphelele kuhlela amathuba okungena kwezulu kanye nezulu ezingama 83%.